Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia
نویسندگان
چکیده
In High Mountain Asia (HMA), rising temperatures and retreating glaciers are leading to the formation of new glacial lakes expansion existing ones. The sudden release water from such can lead devastating lake outburst floods (GLOF) threatening people infrastructure for many kilometers downstream. Therefore, information on future lakes, e.g., their location, area volume as well timing development, is vital sustainable development settlements infrastructures. this study, we present comprehensive estimates in HMA with unprecedented temporal resolution. We rely an ensemble fifteen global climate models using newest CMIP6 data employ a set four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. With Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), use modeling framework that explicitly simulates glacier dynamics order model change until 2100 estimate period each 2,700 largest (>0.1 km 2 ) HMA. entire region grow by 474 ± 121 SSP126 833 148 SSP585. Following recent currently ), would constitute increase ?120–?210% compared 2018. expected 22.8 6.7 3 39.7 7.7 This range includes drastic tenfold volume, estimated 3.9 2018 43.6 2100. However, there considerable spread between total relative different sub-regions Asia. As both, could GLOF risk, results emphasize urgent need more localized, in-depth studies at especially vulnerable locations enable local communities adapt emerging challenges, implement risk minimization measures, improve
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Frontiers in Earth Science
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2296-6463']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.821798